2014 Vuelta a España

YouTube · Postby **AUbicycles** » Fri Aug 22, 2014 11:08 pm

It's upon us and while the mainstream media have had their cycling-fix for the the year with the Tour de France (which ended up being a bit too predictable after a while), the Spanish Vuelta has a number of favourites

Here are some business analytics that were run, taking a different approach to predicting winners.
http://t.co/YJThhFuQbB" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Highest
Alberto Contador
Joaquim Rodríguez
Andrew Talansky
Chris Froome
Nairo Quintana
Alejandro Valverde

High
Chris Horner

Medium
Daniel Navarro
Cadel Evans
Mével
Ryder Hesjedal

biker jk · Postby **biker jk** » Sat Aug 23, 2014 6:55 am

Well you can strike out Horner. He's been withdrawn by Lampre-Merida for low cortisal since they are a member of MPCC.

nirismo · Postby **nirismo** » Sat Aug 23, 2014 9:33 am

Nairo Quintana has got it in the bag

singlespeedscott · Postby **singlespeedscott** » Sat Aug 23, 2014 9:46 am

I wonder why Cadel is racing? Didn't he vow never to race in Spain again after the incident with the furniture tacks at the 2009 Vuelta?

Chuck · Postby **Chuck** » Sat Aug 23, 2014 11:21 am

singlespeedscott wrote:I wonder why Cadel is racing? Didn't he vow never to race in Spain again after the incident with the furniture tacks at the 2009 Vuelta?

It's good preparation for the World Championships. Who knows he may even sneak a stage win or two.

queequeg · Postby **queequeg** » Sat Aug 23, 2014 12:43 pm

singlespeedscott wrote:I wonder why Cadel is racing? Didn't he vow never to race in Spain again after the incident with the furniture tacks at the 2009 Vuelta?

I think he is riding second wheel to Sanchez.

http://m.smh.com.au/sport/cycling/cadel ... 07bha.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

rogan · Postby **rogan** » Sat Aug 23, 2014 12:46 pm

Chuck wrote:
singlespeedscott wrote:I wonder why Cadel is racing? Didn't he vow never to race in Spain again after the incident with the furniture tacks at the 2009 Vuelta?
It's good preparation for the World Championships. Who knows he may even sneak a stage win or two.

He says in the paper today he's riding for Sammy Sanchez. My gut feeling, this is Cadel's last grand tour.

FWIW I don't think Cadel is a serious threat for the rainbow jersey either. Course supposedly suits "fast finisher who can survive on hills". Among Australians, Gerro, maybe Matthews. Of course, there's better prospects elsewhere, Sagan, Gilbert, Spartacus...

singlespeedscott · Postby **singlespeedscott** » Sat Aug 23, 2014 1:05 pm

rogan wrote: FWIW I don't think Cadel is a serious threat for the rainbow jersey either. Course supposedly suits "fast finisher who can survive on hills". Among Australians, Gerro, maybe Matthews. Of course, there's better prospects elsewhere, Sagan, Gilbert, Spartacus...

You seemed to have forgotten how he won his world championship.

YouTube · Postby **AUbicycles** » Sat Aug 23, 2014 10:03 pm

singlespeedscott wrote:You seemed to have forgotten how he won his world championship.

You have a point, however hist past victories subsequently made him a 'marked man' so it is tough for him to take an unassuming breakaway.

find_bruce · Postby **find_bruce** » Sun Aug 24, 2014 8:54 am

Interesting results for the stage 1 TTT

Quintana & Valverde sitting pretty. Contador, Sanchez, Froome et all losing time

Chuck · Postby **Chuck** » Sun Aug 24, 2014 9:01 am

AUbicycles wrote:
singlespeedscott wrote:You seemed to have forgotten how he won his world championship.
You have a point, however hist past victories subsequently made him a 'marked man' so it is tough for him to take an unassuming breakaway.

While it's true that the heavy marking of Cancellara in 2009 helped Cadel it was still a well timed attack from an elite group of riders. I guess it depends a lot on how well he comes out of the Vuelta, but imho on the course that is on offer Cadel is not the silliest bet out there. I actually like his chances.

RonK · Postby **RonK** » Sun Aug 24, 2014 10:14 am

Chuck wrote:
AUbicycles wrote:
singlespeedscott wrote:You seemed to have forgotten how he won his world championship.
You have a point, however hist past victories subsequently made him a 'marked man' so it is tough for him to take an unassuming breakaway.
While it's true that the heavy marking of Cancellara in 2009 helped Cadel it was still a well timed attack from an elite group of riders. I guess it depends a lot on how well he comes out of the Vuelta, but imho on the course that is on offer Cadel is not the silliest bet out there. I actually like his chances.

Quite so. After all, who put their money on the current champ at last years worlds?

rogan · Postby **rogan** » Sun Aug 24, 2014 11:05 am

singlespeedscott wrote:
rogan wrote: FWIW I don't think Cadel is a serious threat for the rainbow jersey either. Course supposedly suits "fast finisher who can survive on hills". Among Australians, Gerro, maybe Matthews. Of course, there's better prospects elsewhere, Sagan, Gilbert, Spartacus...
You seemed to have forgotten how he won his world championship.

Not at all. I remember how he won his world championship. He's not riding like that now.

Red Rider · Postby **Red Rider** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 12:25 am

Looks like an epic one this year, Quintana vs Froome is going to be particularly good. I doubt Contador will do too much, he missed too much after the crash.

GAV!N · Postby **GAV!N** » Wed Aug 27, 2014 2:36 pm

Red Rider wrote:Looks like an epic one this year, Quintana vs Froome is going to be particularly good. I doubt Contador will do too much, he missed too much after the crash.

I wouldn't rule him out. I know it's early days, but so far he's kept up, including be 1 of the 16 left at the finish on yesterdays stage. Yeah it was only 7 seconds, but he's thereabouts if he can keep up for the first week his race legs will be coming good. Time will tell.

danny the boy · Postby **danny the boy** » Thu Aug 28, 2014 3:29 pm

Can't wait for some of the big climbs, this field is incredible. Hoping Aru backs up his Giro form, Froome is not gonna be able to just sit on Quintana's wheel and ignore the other attacks, so many chances for overall.

find_bruce · Postby **find_bruce** » Fri Aug 29, 2014 7:46 am

Mathews says goodbye to the red jersey & the pretenders drop off at the first of the climbs. No surprises in the top 6 - Valverde, Froome, Contador, Rodriguez, Quintana, Aru.

I was a bit surprised to see Quintana lose a few seconds, but I suspect Movistar's strategy is to use Valverde to blunten Groome & Contador

Joel Bohorquez · Postby **Joel Bohorquez** » Mon Sep 01, 2014 1:44 am

Now. Tonight stage is been very excited. La vuelta is turning out to be the most competitive Gran Tour of the year. 9 seconds between First (Quintana) and Fourth (Anacona). Contador is 2nd just 3 secs from Nairo.
It is very exciting the fight for Red.
Watching RTVE live streaming with VPN.

AndrewCowley · Postby **AndrewCowley** » Mon Sep 01, 2014 9:19 pm

Sunday's stage was awesome. Great to see Contador hammering it. Quintana got a little lucky I thought being dragged along to the finish to not lose any time to Contador. Again it's turning out to be the best GT of the year. Pure racing. Seems a shame there's now a dry and boring ITT which will probably change the complexion of the GC all over again.

GAV!N · Postby **GAV!N** » Wed Sep 03, 2014 5:59 am

Dang! Such a shame for quintana. It was building up to a great battle between him and contador. Going to be very hard for him to come back. Rigo is going well again and his tt skills are very impressive! Contadors to lose from here now. Can anyone knock him off?

find_bruce · Postby **find_bruce** » Wed Sep 03, 2014 1:36 pm

Never good to see anyone crash - hope Quintana is not too badly hurt. If he has the legs, the team will be encouraging him to attack because no-one can afford to let him go.

I was a bit surprised to see Cadel put in a big effort in the TT given that he is 20 odd minutes down - presumably he was riding to set a pace for Sanchez who had a good ride to keep himself in sight of the podium.

Red Rider · Postby **Red Rider** » Wed Sep 03, 2014 10:06 pm

Well there goes my predictions, Froome & Quintana looking sketchy, Contador showing unbelievable form. What a champ!

Big question for me is why Froome is in dud form. Very disappointing

Will he come good this week? Hard to see it happening, he looks tired.

Quintana lucky not to be in hospital. Hourly the body hasn't taken much of a hit and he can throw a cat amongst it next week.

find_bruce · Postby **find_bruce** » Thu Sep 04, 2014 9:23 am

Sadly Quintana is out - been a year for favourites to crash out

Clembutador was out for every second - chasing an intermediate time bonus. He appeared to have the chance to take another chunk out of Froome , but didn't take it.

clackers · Postby **clackers** » Fri Sep 05, 2014 3:12 pm

GAV!N wrote:Dang! Such a shame for quintana.

The great descenders of the peloton like Nibali and Evans must have wondered when watching the line Quintana took in that time trial ... "What was he thinking?"

Hope his healing goes okay ... it's been an enjoyable Tour.

leximack · Postby **leximack** » Fri Sep 05, 2014 6:05 pm

Someone needs to teach Quintana to lean the bike more into corners, sure it was a crappy line and was going too fast but if he would of leaned the bike over more he might of had half a chance of making the corner.
Also Degenkolb has the weirdest sprinting/pedalling style, he looks like he is pedalling squares, i really struggle to watch it, but hey it works so who am i to judge

Looking forward to the mountain stages