Thoglette wrote:fat and old wrote:With all respect, !! BAN ME NOW FOR SWEARING !! your statistics. They're not the be all of life.
I'm sorry that you've had a personal tragedy. I truly am.
As someone who uses statistics to make decisions on a regular basis I'll be amongst the front runners to roll out the line "lies, damn'd lies and statistics". One needs to equally aware of the conscious and unconscious bias of any one claiming to be "evidence based" or "scientific".
But, without utlising statistics, exactly how do you propose we do things like, say, decide whether a safety enhancement for commercial aircraft should be rolled out across the global fleet? And yes, some poor bastard has to make that decision.
Thanks, but it wasn't your fault. It was no one's fault, and that's obviously the point I'm making. I know intellectually that my brother is a statistical anomaly...an
anecdote as it were. But he was a real person, and the accident had real consequences that cannot be waved away with a mathematical sweep of the brush. Sure, you can use statistics to develop policy and hopefully influence outcomes....but you still need those human causes and effects to decide
what to apply your statistics too. For some of us, it's either too late or beyond the control of math.
After all, the only "safe" aircraft is one that never leaves the hanger.
And I still ride my bike
human wrote: Based on the anecdotes presented here one would think that toddling along helmetless in Amsterdam on their bumpy brick roads is extremely dangerous. Whereas bunch riding at high speeds in close proximity to other cyclists is extremely safe.
One could almost think that there is a strong bias of cyclists here to reinforce their own choices and approach to cycling. Rather than an unbiased assessment of risk.
But you know let's ignore the statistics and sensible risk assessment and stick with cherry picked anecdotes.
No, not at all. Lets apply statistics.
You're a minority within a minority. Therefore, statistically your opinion is worth jack and you don't even deserve to be heard. Harsh, no? Yet statistically correct.
Anyway....applying statistics and
sensible risk assessment to the issue of cycling on the road (Which is the activity being discussed).
There's no dispute that cyclists are over represented in the injury department. Whether that figure is 50% or 80% for single cyclist accidents, or the figure is 50% of car/cycle accidents the figures are high. Too high. On that we all agree. What to do? Cycling is not an inherently dangerous activity; it is apparent that the interaction with motor vehicles is.
Cycling is not dangerous. However the environment in which we cycle is. The statistics make this abundantly clear.
Now, we apply a sensible risk assessment. I guess we should first agree on what a "risk" is. This
is BNA, after all. For ease and impartiality, I have taken this from the google
A probability or threat of damage, injury, liability, loss, or any other negative occurrence that is caused by external or internal vulnerabilities, and that may be avoided through preemptive action
It's probably also a good idea to outline the meaning of "sensible". Again, from google
done or chosen in accordance with wisdom or prudence; likely to be of benefit.
Makes sense....the risk we face as cyclists of injury or worse at the hands of motor vehicles fits the explanation of "risk" to the letter. That preemptive action is what we take as a result of our sensible risk assessment. I cannot link pictures or diagrams anymore with ease, so I'll just spell out a quick matrix for R/A.
There are five levels (usually) of frequency (how likely is the outcome...in this case an injury to cyclists) applied to (usually) five levels of consequences that range from insignificant (no injury/minimal financial loss) to catastrophic (death/massive financial loss). Simple enough, and usually indisputable.
Applying this to road cycling injuries/death in Australia, we see that the frequency would be likely or probable; i.e. could easily happen/once a month. The consequence is catastrophic. Death is as bad as it gets. Again, usually indisputable.
The next step is to evaluate the options we have to reduce/eliminate the risk...remembering that the risk to cyclists on the road is mostly external as well as our statistical place in the hierarchy (numbers of cyclist using the roads compared to motor vehicles including public transport). Commonly used Hierarchy of Risk Control as supplied by most Safety organisations is acceptable here. Six levels of controls that are applied to the problem to ensure a safe environment for the cyclist.
Eliminate the Hazard.
Preferable.....especially to cyclists. Remove all motor vehicles from the roads. Of course, this is ridiculous and not possible. Even should the authorities remove all private transport from the roads, commerce demands delivery of both human and non human
material to there places in society. This is inescapable.
Substitution.
Substitute the hazard with something safer. I am not aware of any commercial or available to the public hover cars or trucks as yet. Nor are driverless cars anywhere near ready; driverless trucks less so. Unfortunately, there are no options here.
Isolation.
Isolate the hazard. Keep it away from people. Now we're getting somewhere. Separated Cycle lanes seem to be the answer to this option. All is not what it seems however. Separated cycle lanes still have gaps in them where vehicles require access to buildings and intersecting streets. This is again inescapable. Not only that; it leaves cyclists vulnerable at the worse places...intersections. Statistics show that there are more negative cyclist/motor vehicle interactions at these places. So they're really not the total answer. Part of the answer yes; probably the most significant part. But not infallible. Going further, separated lanes do not stop pedestrians from crossing into the path of cycles. This introduces a new hazard to cyclists, which when looked at from the R/A template results in a possibly catastrophic result for both the cyclist AND the pedestrian. So they're out.
Engineering Controls
Reduce the risk through engineering controls. Engineering controls are methods that are built into the design of a plant, equipment or process to minimize the hazard. Engineering controls are a very reliable way to control worker exposures as long as the controls are designed, used and maintained properly. Examples such as separated cycle lanes (already discussed and rejected as being inadequate), priority light signals and marked cycle lanes (which do nothing to protect a cycle from being struck by a motor vehicle), driverless cars and trucks (discussed earlier and rejected at this point in time). Not only are there few options open to us there is a large flaw contained in this concept...the maintenance of these controls. How many cycle lanes are worn away to the point of being unrecognisable? How many indeed are even legal due to the inability of authorities to make them so with the simple addition of a sign, or extra paint on the ground? Society has let us down, and the result is a failure of engineering controls to significantly reduce the risk to an acceptable limit. Statistics support this: the frequency is still probable or likely; the consequence remains death.
Administrative Controls
Reduce exposure to the hazard through administrative controls. The minimum passing distance legislation is probably the most recognisable example of the application of administrative controls. How's that working out for everyone? The various laws and penalties we have to protect society in general are applicable to cyclists. One can theoretically gaoled for killing a cyclist through negligence. Or at least receive a debilitating fine that will change your actions for ever. Unfortunately as we all know these penalties are rarely if ever applied to a driver of a motor vehicle that kills a cyclist. Again, fail.
So we are left with using
Personal Protective Equipment
Helmets! In spite of our personal feelings on the matter it is clear that the use of PPE is an essential pert of cycling on the road. We owe it to ourselves to recognise and embrace this aspect of Risk Control as it is an integral component of Sensible Risk Assessment. Helmets, gloves, long sleeves and trousers should be part of every Sensible cyclist if they ride on the road. There are recent advancements in kevlar reinforced clothing that motorcyclists have adopted which should be looked at by any self respecting, safety conscious cyclist in order to mitigate the risk that motor vehicle pose.
Not only is he likelihood of that happening laughable it is actually useless. It will not do anything to reduce the frequency or the consequence of the risk. PPE is not the answer.
The only answer to a Sensible Risk assessment of cyclists riding on the road is to remove the cyclist from the road. The Statistics support this. The Sensible Risk Assessment supports this. The overwhelming majority of road users support this (statistically more people choose to drive a motor vehicle than ride a cycle).
Statistics and Sensible Risk Assessments. The answer to life's problems.
(With apologies to Thoglette.)