Unsafe Passes are much more common than you'd expect: both for cyclists and across the road system. Poll results of the real-life experiences from 451 bike riders has found that:
>> Cyclists on average encounter at least one illegal vehicle pass per week
>> One-fifth of respondents are faced with ten or more Unsafe Passes every month
>> Reckless drivers in NSW have less than one in a million chance of being fined for an Unsafe Pass
>> There have been more than 100 million breaches of the Minimum Passing Distance since introduction in March 2016 (yet only 65 fines have been issued)
Please sign the Petition for Safe Passing Distance, and share it widely with your network, asking them to sign it as well:
https://tinyurl.com/proactiveMPD
There were 1,967 serious injuries to cyclists last year, and about 7 cyclists die on NSW roads each year. It only takes a single incident to alter the course of a victim’s life, as echoed by two poll respondents when asked how many Unsafe Passes they have experienced:
__“One, because four weeks ago I was hit by a car and haven't ridden since.” Matthew
__“One, they hit me now I can’t ride for 8 weeks due to broken bones” Linton
Here are some other typical responses to the survey:
__“I can’t remember the last time I went for a ride without at least one close pass.” Michael
__“If it were any worse, I wouldn't be alive to tell you how many near misses I have!” Marina
__“I get dozens of sub-1 metre passes, and at least 1-2 willful and dangerous close-shave *every day*. Multiply that out by numbers of riders to get some idea of the real extent of the offence” Peter
__“The only thing that will work is prosecution of these careless drivers. I have had two trucks pass me so close, I feared the draft would pull me under… The rider, me, is too busy trying to stay alive to get a plate number.” Rick
__“I ride every day. And every day I have at least one clown skim past with inches to spare. Most drivers are great, but there’s 1% that are trying to kill people. Fine them, take their license away, put them in jail. Do whatever it takes to get the message through before someone else dies!” Andy
To work out the number of Unsafe Passes on our roads, the key unknown has been the incidence of Unsafe Passes experienced by cyclists each month. This poll question was asked to thousands of different types of bike riders:
>> “How many close passes have you encountered during the last FOUR WEEKS? (less than 1.0 metre gap up to 60km/hour, or less than 1.5 metres clearance in a speed zone over 60 km/hour)”
The most shocking result from this poll is that one-fifth of respondents experience several Unsafe Passes per week (or more):
__“At least once a day for me.” Mark
__“At least one a day.” Darren
__“Minimum 1 a day. 7 days a week. 4 weeks is 28. I'd go 30 or 40 to round off. Mostly incompetent motorists. On average 1 a week would be categorized aggressive and 1 a month would be aggressive, deliberate and potentially lethal.” Peter
__“I don't keep track, too many to count!” Lauren
__“Not enough numbers on here” Steve
__“Too many to count in 1 week but easily 20 at under 60cm and probably 4 worth keeping on file for future reports if I come across them again on my regular commute” Anthony
__“Yep, more than 10 for me too” Domes
__“Need an option for 'more than 20'. I get at least 10 less than 1 metre (or less than 1.5 metre in a 70 kmh zone) *every* DAY!” Peter
__“You don’t have a number big enough- over 50” Bastien
__“10+ and I'm not a 'roadie' type - I use quiet streets and/or separated tracks or footpaths. Quiet streets are going the way of the dodo, almost non-existent now
It's basically become impossible to get my kid to ride to school…. rat-runners buzzing past on all streets these days.” Troy
The attached chart shows the distribution of the 451 responses, with most riders clustered between zero and four. Comments from the 20% of riders in the “Ten plus” category suggest that they encounter about 25 Unsafe Passes every four weeks, which would give an average of 7.2 Unsafe Passes per rider across the poll. However, there may be insufficient responses from riders experiencing few Unsafe Passes (including minors) and riders with many Unsafe Passes may be more motivated in responding to this poll... So conservative assumptions have been used in the attached calculations. For example, the low case gives only 10 Unsafe Passes to the most at-risk riders (instead of 25), and shifts 12% from this category to the “None” category (extremely conservative compared to the poll result).
The biennial Cycling Participation Survey gives the percent of people who ride a bike each month, for each State and Territory. For the medium case, the NSW calculation is straight-forward:
>> 7.92 million people x 17.8% cycling per month x 4.35 Unsafe Passes per month (convert from four weeks to one month) = 6.13 million Unsafe Passes per month
With 65 fines issued from March 2016 to May 2018, there was only 1 fine for every 2.5 million Unsafe Passes. And the chance of being caught by Police was a tiny 0.00004% (so small that you have to reveal five decimal places to even see it!!). Reckless drivers have 99.99996% chance of not being caught…
The survey reveals many of the key factors that influence Unsafe Passes:
__“Depends what time & location you ride. Like most people I do the hard work for drivers by getting up at 5am & riding on roads where I minimise interaction with drivers. If I actually rode where & when I wanted, I'd get 10 close passes in the first 5 minutes.” Gareth
__“Drivers are aggressive during peak hour…” Declan
__“I cycle Sydney peak hour. I get at least 5 every day.” Bernard
__“Ride 2km on a busy street at peak hour, you will already reach 10 close passes easily... That's just the sad reality but it shouldn't stop us riding!” Rudy
__“The time of day, the day, the route, all make a difference. Outside fast food outlets is dangerous at breakfast time. Passing industrial areas is bad for the late for work brigade and the absolute worst place and time is school drop off and school pick-up time” Peter
__“I find some quiet streets worse. Rat runners and mums in 4x4 (worst).” Aaron
__“I ride every day, but my route is mostly back streets or very wide shoulders etc, so I don't get close passed very often.” Greg
__“Traffic density is also a variable. City riders would have more cars pass than regional / rural riders. I've had rides where I've been passed by less than one vehicle per hour. Hard to get close passes when there is no other traffic.” Mel
__“Ride in a group, two abreast; it’s a general rarity. Ride solo, it’s almost a forgone conclusion...” Steven
What percentage of incidents reported to Police result in a fine? Well you have to make a second assumption to work that out... If victims take between 1 in 10,000 and 1 in 20,000 incidents to Police (only the most life-threatening offences, with the highest quality evidence), then less than 1% of these incidents has resulted in a fine… If more incidents have been taken to Police, then the probability of getting a fine vanishes towards zero (the number of fines doesn’t change, if one goes up then the other has to go down)… NSW Police have refused a Freedom of Information application to disclose the number of incidents reported to them, and they likely don’t have the systems in place to collect this important Road Safety metric.
NSW Police have said that anyone who believes an offence has been committed should report it to them: "If there are any issues with it not being followed up to refer the matter to the relevant Police Area Commander or Police District Commander"
In the UK road.cc has a series of videos and photos on their website called Near Miss of the Day (NMotD), which is up to number 182. This has built awareness of the dangers that vehicles and their drivers pose to cyclists, and is part of a nation-wide effort to change road behaviour:
https://road.cc/show/tags/near-miss-day/143145
Reducing harm on our roads requires a concerted effort to improve awareness of Safe Passing Distance (and the road rule exemptions), as well as Proactive Enforcement of this crucial Road Safety rule:
__“I think many drivers still don't know the 1.5/1m rule and that they can cross a solid white line when safe. They think they have to push past” David
__“Another close pass tonight. It seems nearly every ride lately... I had to remove the sound as it was so expletive ridden it would be unwatchable to most. I was having a lovely commute home until this.” Anthony
__“I am riding in the French Pyrenees. I’m sure the close shaves will resume when I return to Sydney! The drivers here are mostly extremely courteous and cautious. On the local winding roads they will wait for several bends until it is clear to pass. None of the Sydney aggro.” Michael
__“Fundamental to Sydney Aggro lies poor education, minimal consequences for people doing wrong and wildly excessive car dependency” Martin