Giro 2023 !!

[am50em]

And Roglic's bike change to 1x was interesting move.

[am50em]

Wow!!!

[MichaelB]

And so it all changes. Have to watch the top 5 tt’s but it was a STEEP climb !!

[blizzard]

That chain drop

[warthog1]

well deserved win!
Feel for ol mate

[MichaelB]

well deserved win!
Feel for ol mate

I do a bit too, but the same happened to Rog when Pog killed him on the last ITT in the 2020 TdF.

Below is the email for those that subscribe to the Beyond the Peleton (I get the free one), and the embedded videos don't copy over, but it is a REALLY interesting deep dive into the stage

Key Takeaways: Giro d'Italia Stage 20
Breaking down how an instant-classic final grand tour time trial was won
SPENCER MARTIN
MAY 28


After laying nearly dormant for the first 19 stages of the race, the Giro d’Italia GC battle burst to life on the stage 20 time trial, which took the riders up the brutal Monte Lussari climb a mere stone’s throw from the Slovenian border. This proximity to Primož Roglič’s home country meant the stage was packed with hoards of Slovenian fans who were able to witness the 33-year-old execute one of the most memorable come-from-behind performances in recent cycling history when he overcame Geraint Thomas’ 26-second GC lead with his patented high, world-destroying cadence on the climb’s consistent double-digit gradients before taking the stage, and overall, win (even though there is technically a stage 21 tomorrow, it is highly unlikely to feature any real GC racing or time gaps).

Even an ill-timed dropped chain, which forced Roglič off his bike at a highly inopportune time, couldn’t get in the way of Roglič finally getting redemption for his stage 20 collapse at the 2020 Tour de France.

Stage Top Five:
1) Primož Roglič +0
2) Geraint Thomas +40
3) João Almeida +42
4) Damiano Caruso +55
5) Thibaut Pinot +59

Stage GC Time Gaps:
Primož Roglič +0
Geraint Thomas +40
João Almeida +42
Damiano Caruso +55
Thibaut Pinot +59
Eddie Dunbar +3’03

Current GC Top Five:
1) Primož Roglič (Jumbo) +0
2) Geraint Thomas (Ineos) +40
3) João Almeida (UAE) +42
4) Damiano Caruso (Bahrain) +4’40
5) Thibaut Pinot (FDJ) +5’43

Stage 20 Race Notebook
Roglič vs Thomas
9.1km-to-go: After Thomas and Roglič track fairly close to each other on the opening flat 10 kilometers, Roglič enters the designated ‘bike change zone’, which lets him switch off his clunk, but aero, TT machine, and get on an extremely light road bike with a modified mountain bike-esque gearset. Notice how early in the zone his mechanics meets him, which allows them to give him a longer push, and that someone is there to grab the bike from him.


Roglic gets a very clean bike change and is only in ‘the zone’ for six seconds', while exploding out of it with good pace.


Compare this to Geraint Thomas, who has to ride further into the zone since there is no one there to collect his bike.


With his second mechanic occupied with Thomas’ helmet, Thomas has to waste time laying down his bike, before changing helmets, which, while offering more comfort, is costing him serious amounts of time in a race where every second counts. The entire scene gives off a shockingly casual and unhurried vibe.


Thomas gets a solid push, but since he came to a complete stop, he doesn’t have the same forward momentum Roglič displayed. Also, since he took his helmet off, he has to take a moment to put his earpiece back in, which decreases his exit velocity. His total time in ‘the zone’ is 13.5 seconds, which is just over seven seconds slower than Roglič.


5.4km: Roughly halfway through the climb, Thomas is tapping out his usual steady, low-cadence tempo. He looks okay, and while he is losing time, down 8 seconds so far, he is on pace to hold the race lead. However, the white marks on his shorts suggest a possible hydration issue.


Meanwhile, Roglič appears to have his usual devastatingly effective high and steady cadence back after looking off his best following a few mid-Giro crashes. All things being equal, these uber-steep slopes favor Roglič more than Thomas due to his lighter body weight and higher cadence, and he appears to be pressing his advantage here.


2.8km: Roglič, riding SRAM gravel/mtb gearing with a 1x front chainring, suddenly comes to a stop after going over a small bump in the road. He appears to lose his chain and comes to a complete stop.


This is a complete disaster due to the tight time gaps and steep slopes making it so difficult to get back up to speed. However, he does a good job of calmly putting his chain back on, and he gets a solid push from a random spectator and his Jumbo mechanic, who was following with a spare bike on a moto behind. He loses roughly 20 seconds due to the episode, which seems to all but end his shot at taking the overall win.


Timecheck 3: However, the adrenaline from the stop, along with the rabid Slovenian fans, appear to significantly increase Roglič’s urgency, and he comes through the final time check, just 1.5km from the finish line, with the fastest time of the day by far.


Behind, Thomas is visibly struggling and rocking and rolling on the bike. When he comes through the third time check 29 seconds behind Roglič, it starts to appear as though Roglič will be able to take the 26 seconds he needs back even with the mechanical issue.


Finish: Roglič surges to the finish line (which appears to be mobbed with Slovenian flags), to get the day’s fastest time by 42 seconds over João Almeida, which means it will be difficult for Thomas to hold his lead.


Thomas Finish: When Thomas rolls over the line just two seconds ahead of Almeida, it becomes official that he has lost his Maglia Rosa to Roglič on the final day of GC racing.


Key Takeaways
1) Primoč Roglič and Jumbo won today due to learning from their painful past mistakes

With this stage win, Roglič, who lost the 2020 Tour de France on a stage 20 time trial to Tadej Pogačar in devastating fashion, is finally able to complete the circle and exercise his demons relating to uphill time trials.

He is no longer the rider who choked on the final time trial of the 2020 Tour de France after holding the lead for the majority of the race, but can now finally be seen as a killer who is able to rise to the occasion on the biggest stage.

It also means he will now have four grand tour overall wins (3xVuelta, 1xGiro), which ties him for the 11th most of all-time, and second most amongst active riders behind Chris Froome (7).

One of the main reasons Roglič and Jumbo were able to accomplish this is that, partly due to the lessons they learned during that devastating 2020 Tour, they correctly deduced that everything leading up to this time trial Giro was able simply to hold serve and that the race would be won on the eight-kilometer climb to Monte Lussari.

To ensure that Roglič was at his best on this critical climb, they worked backyards from stage 20 in terms of fitness and opportunities. This explains why Roglič looked somewhat undercooked on the stage 1 time trial, and why they let opportunities to rack up stage win time bonuses pass by for three weeks.

By doing so, they allowed Roglič to save every bit of energy he had until this final stage. It might seem small, but, as they learned in 2020, the slight bit of energy it takes to hold the race lead and compete for stage wins, can compound on a difficult final TT.

2) Geraint Thomas’ lead was in trouble the moment the climb began

Needing to pull back 26 seconds on Geraint Thomas over a 19-kilometer TT, Roglič technically needed to take back 1.4 seconds per kilometer on the race leader.

But, with the two tracking similar times through the opening flat 10kms (and Thomas actually going quicker on the road, considering he lost 7 seconds during his bike change and only came through the check 2 seconds down), Roglič needed to average 2.9 seconds per kilometer on Thomas on the climb.

Looking at the time Roglič was taking back on Thomas through each time check, it is clear that Thomas was immediately in trouble since he was giving up 4 seconds per km, even ceding 3.7 seconds per km during the second where Roglič lost 17-seconds due to his dropped chain, before imploding in the final two minutes and giving up 11-seconds in a 120-second time period.

Start-T1 10.5km (The Flats): Roglič takes 2s (.19 s/km)

T1-T2 3.5km (Climb Part 1): Roglič takes 14s (4 s/km)

T2-T3 3.5km (Climb Part 2): Roglič takes 13s (3.7 s/km)

T3-Finish 1.5km (Top of Climb/Descent to Finish): Roglič takes 11s (7.3 s/km)

3) Roglič’s stage, and overall, victory showed Jumbo-Visma picked the correct long-term Giro strategy

These time gaps show that Roglič was simply the stronger rider on the day and the fact that he was able to rack up such consistent time gaps throughout the stage, even with his mechanical issue, shows just how well Roglic and Jumbo prepared for this Giro by targeting the back half, and that they were correct to bank everything on this final day.

Roglič had the advantage of being almost custom-built for the slow-speed steep slopes and riding extremely large off-road gears, which allowed him to spin while others were bogged down, while Geraint Thomas, who is world-class at marking others’ pace on consistent climbs, but not a great steep climb solo rider, had to fight Roglič on his own terrain.

The fact that Roglič lost 19 seconds due to his mechanical, yet still won by 40 seconds, shows this, but, the biggest tell is that Thomas imploded when the steepest section of the climb was over.

This might be counter-intuitive since you’d assume the steeper sections are harder, but oftentimes differences in power can almost be masked by the ultra-steep slopes, only to become much more pronounced when the gradients become less steep.

This is exactly what happened to Thomas, who visibly lacked pace when pushing up and over the rollers at the top of the climb while losing heaps of time to Roglič.

4) Thomas and his Ineos paid for their risky strategy of not pressuring Roglič earlier in the race

Everything is 20/20 in hindsight, but I do have to wonder if Ineos and Thomas should have been aggressive about taking time on Roglič earlier in the race, knowing that 1) he was hurting from his crashes and 2) would be in his element in this final TT.

This is easier said than done, considering Thomas isn’t the type of rider who can easily rack up stage wins and time bonuses, but, the fact that they never deployed Thymen Arensman and Laurens de Plus, who were both lurking high up in the GC all race long, in an early breakaway on a mountain stage in an effort to put Roglič under pressure, meant they let Roglič get a relatively free ride to this time trial.

It ended up not mattering, but the seven seconds they ceded due to their bizarrely unhurried bike change strategy was strange considering it came from a team who puts hundreds of thousands of dollars into optimizing their time trial equipment and aero positions in order to gain every second they can in the discipline.

5) The stage and GC results converging highlights major issues with this Giro’s course design

I will break this down more in next week’s post-Giro deep-dive, but, while the stage was thrilling to watch, the fact that the top five on the day were the top five in the final GC highlights major issues with this Giro’s course planning and how modern racing has incentivized GC riders to sit and wait until the last possible moment.

In short, it is never a great sign for your three-week race through an entire country when a 45-minute hill climb could produce the same result.

[warthog1]

Thanks
Yes a good read.

[jasonc]

His final statement is right. But I think it also shows that it was very tactical. Roglic let gerraint lead and saved his energy. Not silly
The only thing they could do is move the tt to an earlier stage, but then it would love its significance

[stevenaaus]

Oh yes . Hopefully Primoz will have a go/bring his form to the Tour along with all the other big hitters.

[jasonc]

Oh yes . Hopefully Primoz will have a go/bring his form to the Tour along with all the other big hitters.

Nah. Not enough time to recover

[am50em]

I was thinking same, move that final TT to beginning of third week and then lots of GC action to bring back any gaps.

If not the Tour then the Vuelta. Looking forward to that!

[find_bruce]

I disagree with his final statement & not just because I'm disagreeable - it's a bit like saying that because Scheldeprijs almost always comes down to a sprint, they can skip the first 190km.

It's hardly surprising that the strongest riders at the end of 3 weeks perform the best in an uphill ITT. I found it hard to get engaged with this years Giro - looking back the only stages won by a GC contender were the 3 ITTs.

I wonder if the racing would have been different if Remco hadn't been forced out.

[jasonc]

It's hardly surprising that the strongest riders at the end of 3 weeks perform the best in an uphill ITT. I found it hard to get engaged with this years Giro - looking back the only stages won by a GC contender were the 3 ITTs.

I wonder if the racing would have been different if Remco hadn't been forced out.

The different winners, the polka dot jersey comp. Gee shining. There were great competitions outside the gc

[MichaelB]

It's hardly surprising that the strongest riders at the end of 3 weeks perform the best in an uphill ITT. I found it hard to get engaged with this years Giro - looking back the only stages won by a GC contender were the 3 ITTs.

I wonder if the racing would have been different if Remco hadn't been forced out.

The different winners, the polka dot jersey comp. Gee shining. There were great competitions outside the gc

It was a weird Giro for sure.

Some great performances from some newcomers and yes, Remo exiting early did change the race, but so did the weather.

Deserving winners though in all areas, not just GC

[vosadrian]

Well done to Primoz... A fitting way to win after his TDF loss in 2020.

It was a dissappointing Giro for me. I think if Remco would have been there it would have been more exciting. The contenders were not willing to take risks, and that was partially due to the course, but partly due to the riding style of the contenders (being experienced riders in strong teams accustomed to riding defensively). Put in a rider willing to take some risks (Tadej, Remco) and it could have been great. At least Almeida was giving it a go.

Normally the Giro is my favourite, but it probably won't be this year. The scenery was still stunning on the few days it did not rain. The GC battle was dissappointing. Some of the breakaway wins were great. I'm heading over there ina couple months and the Giro passed through several areas I will be going to, so that part was great at least!

[stevenaaus]

Yeah, so much rain.

It would have been good to see Remco still there, but was a pretty tough climbing race, I kindof think he would have lost time on at least one big climb and don't rate the winner as "lucky" in anyway. But maybe I'm wrong.

Amazing to overturn his TDF loss to Pogacar like this.

[Mububban]

Fairytale finish for Cav, and getting a leadout from G - what a guy. Gutted to lose his lead on the final proper stage but still such a champion guy.

I think the riders will happily put this soggy wet Giro behind them!

[warthog1]

Fairytale finish for Cav, and getting a leadout from G - what a guy. Gutted to lose his lead on the final proper stage but still such a champion guy.

I think the riders will happily put this soggy wet Giro behind them!

Made me decide to watch the highlights
That was good of G.
Cav won by a fair way!

[Warnesy]

Nice way to wrap it up with the Cav win. Would have liked more GC action, but it was still an entertaining Giro. Bring on Le Tour.

[RonK]

Dullest Giro in years. Gave up watching halfway through, just checked the highlights.

The organisers format didn't produce the excitement they expected. But they should have realised that putting a huge mountain time trial as the penultimate stage would result in the GC contenders all waiting until the last.

And they loaded the route with three time trials for the benefit of Evenepoel but he only lasted a week. I doubt he would have held his form through the entire Giro anyway, and he is still unproven on the really hard climbs.

The organisers need to better next year.